Zambia is on course to re-introduce a national airline in Q1:19. This will be through a partnership between the government of Zambia being majority shareholders with 55% equity as the remainder is held by Ethiopian Airline. Ethiopian Airline is the best in Africa with a track record of success and the affinity to dominate African skies through aggressive partnerships with nations. The mystery around Zambia having a national airline remains. Is the timing right?
There is no better time in the history of Zambia since the demise of Zambia Airways in 1994 than this time for the reestablishment of a national airline. While this is a big task to undertake, yet it is one that can be achieved given the will power and availability of resources. Previous such attempts by private investors have not yielded good results to go by, but those failures are opportunities to learn from the mistakes or errors committed be it government interference, poor policy implementation or individuals mismanagement by sole investors of the failed airline.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), airline passenger numbers in Africa are expected to more than double in less than 20 years based on a growth rate of about 5.6%. The rate would raise the African number to about 200-million, exceeding that of the global annual compound growth rate, which IATA estimated at 3.6%. At the global rate, the number of global airline passengers would increase from about 4-billion to about 7.8-billion.
The ever-increasing passenger and cargo loads out of and into Zambia and the demand for air travel in recent years gives indications that Zambia has the potential for running an airline but the country is lagging behind in this area in spite of the millions of dollars being poured into building modern airports. The passenger loads have been increasing at an average of 12.6.8% every year since 2005. Exports of fresh agriculture produce to the European Union has also been in great demand, which requires a home based cargo airline to cater to this demand.
Zambia’s economic growth in the last 15 years in the tourism, agriculture and mining sector have contributed well to the nation’s GDP and continue to do so. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council 2018 Report, the direct contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP in 2017 was ZMW7.4 million (3.2% of GDP). This is forecast to rise by 6.5% to ZMW7.9 million in 2018.
This primarily reflects the economic activity generated by industries such as hotels, travel agents, airlines and other passenger transportation. The direct contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP is expected to grow by 4.9% pa to ZMW12.7 million (3.2% of GDP) by 2028A project of such magnitude has a life for sustaining the cause for which it will be assembled for if well managed and implemented.
The growing export demands for fresh produce and cut flowers into the European Union via Amsterdam and into the Middle East gives this project a lifeline because of an ever-increasing need for a Zambian operational cargo aircraft which will reduce on the freight charges experience by Zambian exporters on foreign-operated airlines.
