With the forecast prolonged dry spell affecting the Southern Africa Development Corporation – SADC member states, there has been concern as to what the impact will be on power generation prospects for the copper producer. One proxy for power generation is the lake levels of the worlds largest man made dam the Kariba. According to the Zambezi river authority – ZARAO, water levels have declined to 483.45m as of 26 Nov. 2018 (3 m higher than last years level same time). This represents a 39% full dam. Earlier in the year the Kariba was 87% full just at the end of the 2017/2018 rain season.
Does this signal worry for energy generation?
Not at all. The Kariba post the energy crisis that hit Zambia in 2015/2016 period has been operating at 50% of its 750 megawatt (MW) and other power sources has injected into the grid such as the Itezhi tezhi and Victoria falls power stations whose levels were very healthy in the 2017/2018 rainfall years.
As contained in the Bank of Zambia in the Governors presentation during the last monetary policy committee meeting on 21 Nov, it was reported that Zambia’s energy generation rose to 3,656 gigawatts (GWh) as at 30 Sep. a 10.4% in comparison to 30. Sep 17. This was attributed to high lake levels from most water bodies following a healthy rainfall in the 2017/2018 period. The copper producer is generating enough to even export to its neighbor Malawi under an agreement that will see Zambia plug 35% of the Tobacco producers 200 megawatt energy deficit in 2019.
Current water flow propensity
Chavuma: Flows on the Zambezi River at Chavuma are in recession, with fluctuations being observed in the week under review due to rainfall activities being recorded around the catchment, closing at 60m3/s on 26 Nov. 2018, while the flow observed last year on the same date was 86m3/s.
Nana’s Farm: This station is located about 33km upstream of Victoria Falls. Flows on the Zambezi River at Nana’s Farm have been fluctuating due to sporadic rainfall activities around the catchment during the week under review, closing at 244m3/s on 26 Nov. 2018, while the flow observed last year on the same date was 223m3/s.
Ngonye: Flows on the Zambezi River at Ngonye showed propensity of increasing, closing the week under review at 226 m3/s as at 26 Nov. 2018, while last year’s flow on the same date was 227m3/s.