Author: The Editor

Following a “Republican Clean Sweep” in the 2024 U.S. elections, securing the White House and both chambers of Congress, U.S. bond yields surged from 3.6% to 4.45% on election night, later stabilising around 4.35%. Investors expect this Republican-led government to foster policies contributing to a higher interest rate climate. Read More: Trump 2.0: What’s Ahead for Emerging Markets? As JP Morgan notes, U.S. deficit concerns are a primary driver behind recent rate hikes. Republican-led plans for tax cuts may compel the U.S. Treasury to expand bond issuance to fund the deficit, projected at $1.8 trillion in 2024, exerting upward pressure…

Read More

The Central Bank in Africa’s second-largest copper producer, will hold its final rate-setting meeting for the year this week, with Governor Dr. Denny Kalyalya scheduled to announce the decision on Wednesday, November 13, following Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations starting Monday, November 11. This meeting takes place amid severe drought conditions that have intensified power shortages, leaving Zambia with a gross electricity deficit exceeding 1,470 MW. Despite the power utility securing 670 MW through interventions, the net shortfall remains above 800 MW. This has resulted in some regions facing outages exceeding 21 hours, prompting the Energy Regulation Board to approve…

Read More

November 6 marked a historic turn as Donald J. Trump secured re-election as U.S. President, once again assuming leadership of the world’s largest economy. Triumphant over Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party, Trump now becomes both the 45th and 47th U.S. head of state in a globally anticipated election. This outcome has profound implications for trade policy, geopolitical alignment, macroeconomic direction, climate initiatives, and emerging market (EM) support. In this episode, we delve into the ramifications for EMs, especially amid an economy strained by conflict and climate risks. Historical Context: In the prior election, Trump lost to Joe Biden…

Read More

Zambia faces severe drought, leading to power outages lasting up to 72 hours, crippling small and medium-sized businesses. The electricity deficit has surged to 1,381 MW, significantly raising operational costs across sectors like welding, salons, and grocery stores. The banking industry struggles with tight liquidity after the Bank of Zambia hiked the cash reserve ratio to 26% in May to stabilize the weakening currency, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Interest rates have climbed, with the benchmark rate up 250 basis points to 13.5%. Telecoms suffer from poor network quality due to power shortages, disrupting mobile money transfers. Key sectors, including agribusiness, mining,…

Read More

Airtel Zambia, one of the leading telecoms operator in Africa’s copper hotspot Zambia with a 10.4 million subscriber base, is the sole listed telco on the Lusaka Securities Exchange (LuSE). Beyond telecoms, Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) play a critical role in advancing financial inclusion, especially in remote areas underserved by traditional banks. Through strategic partnerships with banks, MNOs have dominated mobile money payments, with transactions surpassing K452 billion (~$17 billion) in 2023, making it the preferred retail payment platform post-COVID. However, the sector faces mounting challenges from climate change, with prolonged electricity outages and rising petroleum costs significantly impacting network…

Read More

Zambia, Africa’s copper hub, is facing a severe energy crisis, exacerbated by the worst drought in 40 years, leading to a widening power deficit of 1,280 MW. The Southern African nation is enduring daily power cuts, with only four hours of electricity available as water levels at the Kariba Dam hit historic lows. Businesses are bearing the brunt of this energy shortfall, which has pushed Zambia’s manufacturing sector further into contraction. According to Markit Economics, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August dropped to 48.3, down from 49.4 in July, signaling a continued decline in the health of the private…

Read More

In Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, daily life is increasingly disrupted by power outages as the country endures severe energy rationing. Households are left with just 3-5 hours of electricity per day, while the water levels at Kariba, the world’s largest man-made lake, have dropped to critical lows, significantly hampering power generation. The business environment remains in contraction, with manufacturers facing escalating costs as they rely more heavily on diesel generators to offset electricity shortages. The bond markets have not been immune to these pressures, now pricing in an array of risks, chief among them the sovereign stress stemming from…

Read More

Zambia’s central bank will seek to raise K1.6 billion is a bond sale this Friday. This debt sale comes a fortnight after the copper producer successfully restructured its defaulted bonds with fresh instruments trading on the London Securities Exchange. More recently the Southern African nation got a nod from the three rating agencies namely Standards & Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s that across the board upgraded the new bonds and rated the sovereign in positive light given the fiscal strides taken to restore fiscal fitness. Last Thursdays treasury bill auction saw a rally in yields between 100 – 150 basis points…

Read More

The central bank in Africa’s second largest copper hotspot Zambia sold K8.5 billion in 2,3 and 5 year bonds, in a private placement offering on 05 June 2024. The bonds This bond sale comes in the wake of the inclusion of government securities as the newest asset above cash in the computation of statutory reserves. The Bank of Zambia has recorded a series of under-subscriptions in government security sales (to date) as markets grapple with the aftermath of tight liquidity following the 9% hike in cash reserve requirement to 26% on 05 May. This sterilization measures mopped the markets of…

Read More

The week beginning June 16 will see Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, present a supplementary budget to Parliament on Tuesday, June 18, as authorities seek to mitigate the economic impact of a severe drought. Investors will be closely watching market reactions, particularly in currency markets, following Moody’s upgrade of Zambia’s long-term issuer rating to ‘Caa2’ from ‘Ca’ and the upgrade of both local and foreign currency long-term issuer ratings to ‘Caa3’. Here’s a detailed analysis: Drought Crisis and Agriculture Budget Disruption Zambia is grappling with a severe drought that has significantly reduced its power generation capacity and threatened food security…

Read More