One of Zambia’s prestigious and Lusaka Securities Exchange – LuSE listed entities Zambian Breweries Plc a wholly owned subsidiary of global brand AB InBev just made its debut to Africa’s top 250 with a market capitalization of $538 million. This was according to a recent list compiled by the Africa Business Magazine. It’s the first time a Zambian entity has made it to the list. THE GRAVITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT Zambian Breweries joins the star studded list of 119 South African, 34 Egyptian, 14 Kenyan, 9 Zimbabwean, 4 Tanzanian, 1 Malawian, 1 Mozambican nations. WHAT THE TOP 250 AFRICA REFLECTS…
Author: miller
Zambia’s Finance Minister on 28 June announced a deferral in the implementation date for the proposed General Sales Tax (GST) to replace Value Added Tax (VAT). This will be the third date with which the Zambian authorities propose for the new tax to take effect. Earlier MinFin Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe hinted a likely deferral (from 01 July) taking into account the need for time for the bill to pass through parliament prior to its enactment. However the policy implementation inconsistency has been recieved with mixed feelings by business houses citing uncertainty that is causing planning constraints in pricing. The Parliamentary…
CREDIT RISK: Fitch rating agency on 27 June lowered Zambia’s credit risk assessment deeper into junk at CCC from B- with a negative outlook. This is the second downgrade served on Africa’s second largest copper producer after Moody’s cut its rating to Caa2 with negative outlook from Caa1 with a stable outlook. Credit risk appetite for Zambian financial institutions will have to realign lower as they adjust their credit risk ratings which could cap and limit their credit extension impacting private sector growth as banks play a key role in the economic growth equation. In developed nations where banks trade…
According to the International Copper Study Group – ICSG global copper production grew by 1.3% in the first quarter of 2019, with concentrate production declining by about 1% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) by 3.5%: Although a few countries experienced growth, this was largely offset by declines in two major producing countries, namely Chile and Indonesia. Production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, declined by 5% mainly due to lower copper head grades. Indonesian concentrate production declined by 52% primarily as a consequence of the transition of the country’s major two mines to different ore zones leading to…
DOLLAR BONDS: Yields on African Eurobonds widened 8 basis points with Zambia’s bonds 22 bps higher. Dollar bond movement was elastic to the US Fed dovish stance on interest rates ahead of a G20 summit which is fueling demand for riskier assets. KWACHA BONDS: In secondary market trading 2-5 year bonds are still priced between 28%-29% compared to levels of 32%-35% a few months ago. Longer dated tenors are paying circa 30% reflecting elevated credit risks given the fiscal posture of the sovereign. LIQUIDITY: The central bank injected K1.17 billion in its Open Market Operations – OMO cushioning the gap…
INFLATION: Expectations are of a marginal ease, realigning back with the 6-8% corridor for June supported by currency appreciation. Risks on the top side persist on the back of systemic drought in southern Africa, weak Kwacha (ZMW) against the SA Rand (ZAR). Energy deficit poses a high risk to cost push pressures aligning to BOZ projections of elevated consumer price index over the next 8 quarters (2 years). A postponement in sales tax implementation (from 01 July) provides a temporal hedge against price escalation thereby easing inflationary pressure yet breeds uncertainty in business planning and pulse. Despite oil rising to…
One year kwacha money will now earn you 24% You could consider locking up your pension in one year T-bills or better a fixed depo Secondary market yield pricing is still at a 600bps premium The one year is signaling a rising cost of funds One year treasury bill yields rose 56bps to 23.56% in Thursdays (08 Nov.) undersubscribed government debt sale. Only K445.48mn of the K656.49mn appetite was absorbed translating to a bid cover ratio of 1.47. The K900mn auction was 53% subscribed with yields in all other tenors unchanged save the one-year. See one year treasury bill yield…
Verified domestic arrears stock balloons 6% to K14.7billion – Mwanakatwe Domestic arrears stock in Africa’s copper producer rose 5.7% to K14.7bn in Q3: 2018 from K13.9bn in Q1. This was confirmed by the Q3 fiscal performance brief. The arrears stock is the main causer of the uptick in the commercial banking industry non-performing loan stock prudential limit breach. Current industry NPL ratio is 12.4% versus a 10% prudential threshold. A widening domestic arrears figure could put more pressure on commercial bank provisioning on the back of worsening credit quality of counterparty’s. This could reverse the improvements recorded in previous quarters…
Honorable Mwanakatwe touring the Kazungula bridge under construction. The bridge will increase traffic flow into Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana. Currently ferrying if traffic is done using a pontoon which is very risky. The Kazungula corridor is said to be a very lucrative route to facilitate trade among SADC member states. The state is alive to the vulnerabilities of its rising debt profile; Keeping debt in check will be harder than anticipated as the copper producer aims to grow economy; Zambia’s external debt stock as at end of Q3:2018 rose $140mn to $9.51bn, according to the MinFin’s quarterly fiscal performance…
According to a note by BMI Fitch Research, Zambia will struggle to achieve meaningful fiscal consolidation. The research firm believes that Zambia’s government will struggle to enact rapid fiscal consolidation over 2019 and 2020, as the government will keep public spending elevated despite calling for fiscal consolidation in the budget speech released at the end of September. BMI is of the view that revenue-enhancing tax reforms – which will be implemented by January 2019 – will hit mining production and private consumption in an already weak economic environment, meaning that receipts are unlikely to reach government targets. BMI projects higher…