Winners. The Egyptian pound (EGX) led the race with an 11.01% YTD rally as sentiment improves in the North African economy. Egypt has post the Arab spring seen improved investment fund flows in the bond and equity markets especially after the IMF granted the Egyptian economy $12 billion life line.
Other winners include the Malawian Kwacha (MWK) and Nigerian Naira (NGN) which gained 0.74% and 0.64% respectively. The Uganda Shilling (UGX) rallied 0.36% YTD.
Losers
The Angola Kwanza (AOA) depreciated 32.5% as a consequence of devaluation by its central bank (BNA) given a volatile crude market and economic recovery out of recession. The AOA is a commodity linked managed crude currency exposed to crude prices. Angola’s foreign exchange reserves have been falling to defend the currency in crude price volatility times.
The Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) extended losses in the week widening its streak to 14.97% YTD given waning sentiment causing currency sell-off pressure coupled with rising dollar demand to fund the energy sector. With weak import cover of 1.6 months and reserves of $1.4 billion the central bank has not been in the market for a while save Friday 15 November when they eased pressure by selling dollars that reversed some of the losses to position the currency at just below 6 month lows.
Ghanaian Cedi (GHS) was 10.79% weaker given volatility in cocoa prices and pressure from weakening investor flows. The Cedi has been under pressure since the premature monetary policy easing stance by the Bank of Ghana (BOG) while the cocoa producer was still on an IMF program. This has caused investor flow blips with the completion of a IMF program in April. With BOG interventions the Cedi has reversed most losses by is still over 10% weaker for the year.
The Sierra Leone Leone (SLL) has been a currency recovering from ravages of civil wars given the noise around fiscal vulnerabilities, a widened debt to GDP and rising double inflationary pressure sending the SLL 12.97% YTD in loss. With IMF support the SLL has been able to hold some ground but the currency markets still reflect the dislocations in the fiscals.
Other losers include the Gambian Dalasi (GMD), Guinean Franc (GNF), SA Rand (ZAR), Rwandan Franc (RWF) and Ethiopian Birr (ETB) whose loses range between 3.2%-4.5%.
The Brexit Consultant